Summary
In the July 2024 E.M.I. edition Arjun Nagarajan, Chief Economist discusses key economic indicators, Key budget numbers, markets and investments
Highlights
- Economy
- Budget – expect fiscal consolidation to continue, RBI dividend will help increase social support expenditure
- Bonds – 10-year yields dropped from 7.35 to 7% this year due to FPI flows due to Index inclusion, RBI dividend, falling crude prices and S&P surprise positive outlook.
- Macros remain positive with PMIs in expansion mode, continued momentum in eway bill numbers, Mar 24 CAD turned positive largely due to services export
- FII debt inflows momentum strong
- Markets
- Nifty 50 5-year CAGR 14% matches with earnings growth 13% cagr
- However for Midcaps – 5 year CAGR 29% against an earnings growth of 21%.
- Investment Outlook
- India tops Ems and US tops DMs in equity returns.
- Positive on financials, consumer discretionary,
