Summary
This edition deliberately avoids market forecasts and instead uses data to challenge widely held investment myths. The core message is that data is most useful for negating bad decisions, not predicting outcomes. Markets move in cycles, correlations change, and investor outcomes improve when portfolios are built to reduce volatility, noise, and behavioral errors rather than chase narratives.
Key Themes
Asset Allocation
Gold and equities both go through cycles. While gold has outperformed equities in certain long phases, it is not a permanent substitute for growth assets. The takeaway is not asset switching, but balanced, multi-asset allocation, which improves return experience and reduces the likelihood of panic decisions.
Growth vs Returns
High economic growth does not automatically translate into high equity returns. Shareholder outcomes depend on multiple factors beyond GDP, including valuations, capital allocation, and currency effects. Long-term projections—especially in dollar terms—should be treated conservatively.
Flows and Performance
Market flows follow past returns; they do not create future returns. Similarly, the best-performing funds of today rarely remain leaders in the future. Popularity and recent performance are poor predictors of long-term outcomes.
Valuations and Risk
Starting valuations matter. Expensive markets can deliver muted returns for extended periods. Higher volatility or higher beta does not guarantee higher returns; in many cases, lower-risk strategies deliver superior outcomes by reducing behavioral mistakes.
SIPs and Behavior
Timing SIPs has limited impact on long-term outcomes. The real edge lies in discipline—starting and not stopping, regardless of market levels. Automation helps overcome emotional decision-making
Closing View
Investing success is less about forecasting and more about process design. Multi-asset allocation, valuation awareness, disciplined SIPs, and fewer decisions increase the odds of sustainable long-term returns. Cutting noise, not chasing certainty, remains the most reliable strategy
Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks. Read all scheme-related documents carefully
