Author name: fundyantra.com

Summary Global markets remain buoyant while India continues to underperform relative to peers. Persistent INR weakness, sustained FPI outflows, elevated primary market supply, and limited exposure to global AI-led growth themes have weighed on sentiment. However, improving earnings momentum, valuation correction in high-growth segments, potential currency stabilization, and possible trade agreements with the US and West could help reverse flows and restore confidence. The environment may increasingly favour alpha-oriented strategies as new growth leaders emerge Global Economy The US dollar index (DXY) has weakened below 100, benefiting markets with stronger currencies. However, the Indian rupee has remained relatively weak, limiting India’s participation in global inflows. Emerging markets offering exposure to dominant AI-led growth themes have attracted capital, while India has relatively limited listed exposure to strong AI plays. Momentum reallocation within EM portfolios has also contributed to selling pressure in India. Domestic Factors Several domestic dynamics have contributed to market weakness: While domestic mutual fund inflows remain positive, the pace has moderated relative to earlier peaks Earnings Growth and Valuations Q2 corporate results exceeded expectations, and Q3 may continue this trend, potentially restoring confidence. Large-cap indices have broadly maintained valuations with earnings growth, while broader markets have seen valuation compression despite better earnings growth. High-growth segments have experienced sharper corrections, making them relatively better valued compared to the past. This valuation comfort could support performance once macro and flow headwinds ease. Flows and Liquidity Sustained FPI outflows have been a key headwind. A favorable trade deal with the US and broader Western economies could help stabilize the INR and restart global capital flows. Currency stability may trigger a virtuous cycle: Portfolio Positioning The fund house has: The focus remains on emerging growth leaders while adapting to evolving sector dynamics Structural Growth Themes Identified Long-term earnings growth potential is seen in: While global high-growth assets performed strongly in 2025, Indian high-growth segments underperformed. A mean reversion, if it occurs, could create a favorable setup for alpha generation. Risks Opportunities Low inflation, relatively low interest rates, valuation correction in growth spaces, and improving earnings momentum provide a constructive backdrop. Historically, the period post mid-March has delivered stronger returns relative to early calendar months, potentially offering tactical entry advantages. Closing View India’s underperformance has been driven more by flows and currency dynamics than by structural earnings weakness. With valuation resets in high-growth segments and macro stability improving, conditions may increasingly favor selective, alpha-driven strategies over passive index exposure. Improvement could coincide with currency stabilization and trade clarity over the next year. Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks. Read all scheme-related documents carefully.

Summary Global markets remain buoyant while India continues to underperform relative to peers. Persistent INR weakness, sustained FPI outflows, elevated primary market supply, and limited exposure to global AI-led growth themes have weighed on sentiment. However, improving earnings momentum, valuation correction in high-growth segments, potential currency stabilization, and possible trade agreements with the US and West could help reverse flows and restore confidence. The environment may increasingly favour alpha-oriented strategies as new growth leaders emerge Global Economy The US dollar index (DXY) has weakened below 100, benefiting markets with stronger currencies. However, the Indian rupee has remained relatively weak, limiting India’s participation in global inflows. Emerging markets offering exposure to dominant AI-led growth themes have attracted capital, while India has relatively limited listed exposure to strong AI plays. Momentum reallocation within EM portfolios has also contributed to selling pressure in India. Domestic Economy Several domestic dynamics have contributed to market weakness: While domestic mutual fund inflows remain positive, the pace has moderated relative to earlier peaks Earnings Growth and Valuations Q2 corporate results exceeded expectations, and Q3 may continue this trend, potentially restoring confidence. Large-cap indices have broadly maintained valuations with earnings growth, while broader markets have seen valuation compression despite better earnings growth. High-growth segments have experienced sharper corrections, making them relatively better valued compared to the past. This valuation comfort could support performance once macro and flow headwinds ease. Flows and Liquidity Sustained FPI outflows have been a key headwind. A favorable trade deal with the US and broader Western economies could help stabilize the INR and restart global capital flows. Currency stability may trigger a virtuous cycle: Risks Opportunities Low inflation, relatively low interest rates, valuation correction in growth spaces, and improving earnings momentum provide a constructive backdrop. Historically, the period post mid-March has delivered stronger returns relative to early calendar months, potentially offering tactical entry advantages. Closing View India’s underperformance has been driven more by flows and currency dynamics than by structural earnings weakness. With valuation resets in high-growth segments and macro stability improving, conditions may increasingly favor selective, alpha-driven strategies over passive index exposure. Improvement could coincide with currency stabilization and trade clarity over the next year. Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks. Read all scheme-related documents carefully.

Summary Nikest Shah CIO on house views on macro economics and investment outlook Global Economy Domestic Economy Investment Outlook Risks Risks Opportunities Policy Watch Key Takeaway India stands strong within a global bull market phase.While valuations are elevated, robust domestic fundamentals and potential global triggers justify a cautiously optimistic outlook — with Balanced Advantage and Multi-Asset Funds as core allocations.

Summary Global inflation is slowly coming down, but rising commodity prices and supply chain disruptions are putting pressure on inflation. Central banks have started cutting rates, but it remains to be seen if expectations will be met. The Indian economy is performing well, with positive GDP growth and various sectors showing strength. The market outlook suggests a neutral weight to equity and potential opportunities in sectors like FMCG, private banks, and IT. Timestamped Highlights 00:00 -1:08 Global inflation is gradually decreasing, but rising commodity prices and supply chain disruptions are impacting inflation. 02:10 -3:40 Central banks have started cutting rates, but there is uncertainty if expectations will be met. 04:35 -7:45 The Indian economy is performing well, with positive GDP growth and strength in sectors like FMCG, private banks, and IT. 08:25 -9:35 The market outlook suggests a neutral weight to equity and potential opportunities in sectors such as FMCG, private banks, and IT. Key Insights Rising commodity prices and supply chain disruptions are putting pressure on inflation, despite global inflation slowly decreasing. This could impact the overall market outlook. Central banks have started cutting rates, but it remains uncertain if these expectations will be met. The potential impact on inflation and economic growth needs to be closely monitored. The Indian economy is showing positive signs, with GDP growth, strong sectors like FMCG, private banks, and IT. This presents opportunities for investors. The market outlook suggests a neutral weight to equity, indicating a balanced approach. However, there are potential opportunities in sectors like FMCG, private banks, and IT, which should be considered. The Indian market is influenced by factors such as government policies, geopolitical tensions, and global events. These factors should be taken into account when making investment decisions. Gold and silver prices are influenced by factors like central bank buying, production levels, and demand. These factors should be considered when analyzing the market outlook. The performance of different funds, including equity, hybrid, and debt funds, should be evaluated based on their track record and alpha generation. This can help investors make informed decisions and diversify their portfolios.