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Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund August 2026 Monthly Market Outlook The Motilal Oswal market outlook August 2026 delivers a distinctive reframe: every constraint India is facing right now — oil at $85, forex pressure, a hot dry summer — is accelerating the same short list of themes. Energy indigenisation, import substitution, domestic manufacturing, defence. The constraints are not the story. The pressure they create is what converts the theme list from intention into ordering. Motilal Oswal market outlook August 2026: the pressure is the catalyst This month’s Motilal Oswal market outlook August 2026 briefing comes from Prateek Agrawal, CIO of Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund. Read alongside the Kotak August outlook — which framed IPO supply as the new ceiling — and the DSP Netra August briefing that made the sharpest AI-concentration case. Where those two focus on the setup, Motilal Oswal focuses on the policy response: what constraints are already forcing India to build. CONSTRAINTS Accelerating Themes FPI INFLOWS Don’t Underwrite AI PLAY Adjacency, Not Trade BANKS & IT Value Zone Summary The Motilal Oswal market outlook August 2026 lands on a single reframe: the constraints are accelerating the same themes. Oil at $85, a dollar index back above 100, a rupee under pressure, and kharif sowing 6% behind last year at 531.25 lakh hectares on a 23% rainfall deficit — every one of these headwinds points at the same policy response: electrify with domestic fuel, substitute imports, build manufacturing capability at home. The electronic component manufacturing policy is out, a battery indigenisation policy may follow, ALMM2 has launched on time for solar cells, and two active wars are pushing defence preparedness onto every serious agenda. Positioning is disciplined. Play the AI trade as an adjacency, not a participant — India’s exposure is picks and shovels (networking, generators, gas-based power, transformers, optic fibres, electrical cables), and the 2027 pivot from hardware accumulation to corporate profitability may itself be good for Indian IT. Banks and IT have corrected sharply within large-caps — value investors will find something here, though Motilal Oswal still prefers high-growth spaces. It continues to be time for alpha: EVs over ICE, online over brick-and-mortar, consolidation to large stable builders, defence indigenisation, renewables and BESS over coal and oil power. And on flows — less selling is the realistic base case; buying is not yet. The detail The reframe — the pressure converts intention into ordering Every constraint India is facing is accelerating the same short list of themes. Oil at $85 pushes energy indigenisation. Forex stress pushes import substitution. A weak monsoon pushes attention onto power reliability and domestic capacity. That list is not new. What is new is that the pressure is now real enough to convert it from an intention into ordering. Policy is following the pressure — the electronic component manufacturing policy is out, a battery indigenisation policy may follow, ALMM2 has launched on time for solar cells, and defence buyers now have improving cash flow as crude receipts improve. The named risks — oil, forex, kharif, equity supply Oil. Middle East hostilities have flared again after expectations of a resolution. Ship traffic through Hormuz has continued at significantly better levels, which is what has kept crude around $85 a barrel. A further flare-up is one of the two key risks to the setup. Forex. Higher crude drains reserves. The rupee has weakened, and the dollar index — which sat below 100 for a long stretch — has already crossed back above it. Monsoon. Kharif sowing is trailing last year by about 6%, at 531.25 lakh hectares as of mid-July, on a 23% rainfall deficit and emerging El Niño conditions. Pulses, oilseeds and cotton are down more than rice. Equity supply. The second key risk is closer to home: large equity fundraising can absorb demand and put pressure on secondary market performance. Motilal Oswal would not underwrite FPI buying yet — large stock issuances in the US could absorb global liquidity, and high bond yields continue to pull money into dollar-denominated assets. Energy indigenisation — the cleanest response to the oil problem One approach to insulating an economy against oil price increases is to electrify with domestic fuel sources: solar, wind, coal, biomass and BESS. ALMM2 has launched on time for solar cells. Coal bed methane and ethanol-blended petrol are in focus. Bio-blends of diesel are emerging. All of it moves in the same direction — replace imported barrels with domestically-generated electrons. Two active wars are pushing countries to strengthen defence preparedness. As crude receipts improve and governments feel better about cash flows, defence ordering may gain momentum. That gives defence a second leg — the first was budgetary; the second is order visibility. Read the power numbers carefully — weather + solar cover India is the third largest power market in the world. Base demand grew 11% year on year in June, with individual days at 23% and 21% on the 29th and 30th. That is a weather print, not a structural one — it was driven by rising temperatures and a delayed monsoon. Peak demand of 265 GW was still below May’s 270.8 GW, because strong solar additions are covering daytime peaks at low merchant prices. The number to internalise is not the growth rate — it is the fact that solar is now doing meaningful daytime work, which changes the economics of what needs to be added next (storage, and evening peaks). On AI — play the adjacency, not the trade Wall Street estimates have annual hyperscaler capex trending toward roughly $725 to $800 billion, and some market estimates put aggregate capex past $1 trillion — with certain forecasts running to $1.25 to $1.4 trillion. But up to a quarter of the spending surge is component price inflation, higher memory costs, and massive energy and power requirements rather than capacity, and nominal growth is expected to moderate to about 25% in 2027 from 70% in 2026. India’s participation is in the picks and shovels: networking, generators, gas-based power, transformers, optic fibres

DSP Mutual Fund August 2026 Netra Webinar The DSP Netra August 2026 briefing opens with a sharp reframe: the world is paying record prices for AI capacity it cannot yet monetise. India is the one large market not in that trade — and that is now an asset, not a shortcoming. India’s software-heavy, semiconductor-light composition is a diversification asset right now, not just a hedge against a future reversal. DSP Netra August 2026: the AI concentration risk case This month’s DSP Netra August 2026 briefing comes from Sahil Kapoor, Head of Products & Market Strategist at DSP Mutual Fund. Read alongside the Kotak August outlook — which framed India as the “anti-AI destination if the trade reverses” — and the UTI July non-consensus call. Where Kotak positions India as a hedge, DSP goes further: India’s market composition is a diversification asset right now, and the bargain universe available today didn’t exist in 2024. AI HARDWARE TRADE Fence-Sit INDIA COMPOSITION Diversification Asset BARGAIN UNIVERSE 450–500 Names LT RETURNS Reset to 10–12% Summary The DSP Netra August 2026 call turns on the AI capex concentration risk. Technology now sits at 41% of MSCI ACWI market cap — larger than at the dot-com peak, and the entire move has come from hardware and semiconductors, not software. AI capex is now 2.4–2.7% of US GDP — roughly $1 trillion in 2026 alone — with five hyperscalers having spent $1.3 trillion over five years, more than the world’s largest oil and gas companies since COVID. HBM and memory prices have multiplied 20 to 30 times in a year, which means nominal spend is overstating real capacity creation. The return math doesn’t work yet: a $2–3 trillion cumulative capex programme needs $3–4 trillion of annual revenue to justify itself, while global IT spend after 40–50 years is $6 trillion. The gap has to come out of the $45 trillion global wage bill — and that isn’t a short exercise. India’s setup is the mirror image. IT services are now just 7.4% of the Nifty — below the global financial crisis low of 8.8%. Nifty price-to-book is below its long-term average with ROEs materially higher than at the December 2020 lows. Out of the BSE 1400-plus universe, 450 to 500 companies now screen as bargains with sub-20-times multiples available across financials, IT, select healthcare, auto and insurance — a set that simply did not exist in 2024. Two flat years have delivered a time correction, not a price correction. DSP’s calls: fence-sit on the AI hardware trade; own India as a diversification asset now; reset long-term return expectations to 10–12% before costs; and hunt the bargain universe. The detail The AI concentration risk — 41% of MSCI ACWI, larger than the dot-com peak Technology, counting IT and communication services together, is now 41% of MSCI ACWI market cap — larger than at the dot-com peak. And within it, the entire move has come from hardware and semiconductors, not software. A large part of the reported capex is price, not capacity. Some HBM and memory prices have multiplied 20 to 30 times in a year. GPU rental pricing and the semiconductor producer price index have both moved sharply higher, which means nominal spend is overstating real capacity creation. Funding is increasingly moving from cash flow to debt — having been almost entirely cash-flow-funded until recently. And China is undercutting on price with open-weight models while adding grid capacity in a single year equal to all of Germany’s — which puts the incumbents’ revenue visibility, and therefore their funding, at risk. The return math — the cascade that doesn’t compute yet Every $1 of infrastructure capex becomes $1.5 at the compute layer, $2.7 at the model layer and $4 at the end user. So a $2 to $3 trillion cumulative capex programme needs $3 to $4 trillion of annual revenue to justify itself. Global IT spend, after forty to fifty years, is $6 trillion. The gap has to come out of the $45 trillion global wage bill. That is the unanswered question — and it doesn’t get answered in a quarter. Business investment in computer and peripheral equipment in the US is growing 75% year on year; globally the number is close to $600 billion and approaching the dot-com peak as a share of GDP. That is roughly five to six years of normal demand bought in two years. Why India sits outside — IT at 7.4% of the Nifty, below the GFC low India sits outside the AI hardware trade almost entirely. IT services are now just 7.4% of the Nifty — below the global financial crisis low of 8.8%. That composition, until recently framed as a lack of exposure, is now the setup. All of MSCI EM’s return this year has come from technology, and within technology from semis and hardware. India’s more diversified market composition — software-heavy, semiconductor-light — could become a diversification advantage if the semiconductor and hardware trade normalises. Indian valuations have quietly reset. Nifty price-to-book is below its long-term average on both trailing and forward, at levels last seen in December 2020 but with materially higher ROEs. The same price, better quality. The bargain universe — 450 to 500 names that didn’t exist in 2024 Out of the BSE 1400-plus universe, 450 to 500 companies now screen as bargains, with sub-20-times multiples available across financials, IT, select healthcare, auto and insurance. That is a large enough set to build a genuinely better-quality portfolio — a set that simply did not exist in 2024. Two flat years have delivered a time correction rather than a price correction. The Nifty has spent over 103 days below its 200-day average with modest drawdowns — which is exactly the starting point that improves forward returns. Reset long-term returns to 10–12% before costs — the honest math Reset long-term return expectations to 10 to 12% before costs. Domestic sales growth tracks nominal GDP at 10 to 12%. Export growth lands at 7 to 11% including currency. Margins

Kotak Mutual Fund August 2026 Market Outlook The Kotak market outlook August 2026 delivers a specific reframe: FPI ownership of Indian equities is at a decadal low, FPIs turned buyers in July, and earnings are beating across every market-cap bucket. The setup has changed — what caps the upside now is IPO supply, not fundamentals. Kotak market outlook August 2026: the setup has changed This month’s Kotak market outlook August 2026 briefing comes from Nilesh Shah, MD & CEO of Kotak Mutual Fund, alongside the equity and fixed income teams. Read alongside the Kotak July outlook — where the call was “diversify, don’t react” — and the UTI July non-consensus call that flagged US-dollar peaks. This month, Kotak turns constructive: get invested, but stagger it. FPI OWNERSHIP Decadal Low EARNINGS Beating All Buckets MID-CAPS Overweight ENTRY Stagger, Don’t Lump Summary The Kotak market outlook August 2026 lands on a constructive but disciplined call. FPI ownership of Indian equities is at a decadal low, FPIs sold through March–June but turned buyers in July, and the June-quarter earnings beat was broad: 13 Nifty 50 companies beat versus 6 misses, 17 of Nifty Next 50 beat versus 3, and 18 mid-caps beat versus 12. MSCI India earnings grew around 10% in FY26 with FY27 and FY28 both tracking double digits. What caps the upside now, in Kotak’s read, is IPO supply — not fundamentals. The risks are specific and named: monsoon (June at 40% deficit, July nearly normal but a super El Niño expected through August–September), fiscal pressure (personal income tax growth at a decadal low, capex stagnant), a rupee near an all-time low with the RBI over $100 billion short in the forward market, and globally, US hyperscaler free cash flow turning negative with ~$1.65 trillion of AI-related debt sitting off balance sheet as committed leases. The framework: get invested, but stagger it. Two–three instalments if underweight; six–nine spread over three months if equal-weight. Mid-cap overweight, large-cap equal-weight, small-cap marginally underweight. Financials are the anchor, discretionary consumption over staples, IT neutral, gold positive, and if the AI trade reverses — India sits at the top of the anti-AI list. The detail The setup — FPI ownership at decadal low, earnings beating across buckets FPIs sold through March to June and turned buyers in July, with FPI ownership of Indian equities now at a decadal low. On a Nifty-versus-global-indices basis, this kind of divergence is historically where Indian markets bottom out and start outperforming. Corporate earnings have beaten across the board in the June quarter: 13 Nifty 50 companies beat versus 6 misses, 17 of the Nifty Next 50 beat versus 3, and 18 mid-caps beat versus 12. MSCI India Index earnings grew around 10% in FY26; FY27 and FY28 are both tracking double digits. Valuations are reasonable — large-caps around historical average, large-mids at a 10% premium, small caps at about 20% premium. Government and RBI have moved hard on flows: ECB norms liberalised, roughly $37–40 billion mobilised under FCNR-B, tax exemption for debt FPIs, and roughly $100 billion expected between June and December 2026 — enough to cover the RBI’s forward position and restore some respectability to the rupee. Services exports at ~$400 billion with a $200 billion-plus surplus; GCCs offset the IT services drag; defence exports have climbed to ₹38,000 crore. RBI has revised core inflation down to about 4.3% and GDP growth up. The risks — monsoon, fiscal pressure, rupee, retail credit shift Monsoon is the live one. June came in at a 40% deficit, July was almost normal and pulled the season deficiency down to 13%, but a super El Niño is expected through August and September — a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is the only offset in sight. Agriculture is under 15% of GDP but employs a far larger share of the workforce, and once the monsoon deficit goes beyond 10%, the hit to agriculture GDP and the rural economy is substantial. Fiscally: personal income tax collection growth has slowed to a decadal low, government spending is the lowest in a decade, and central government capex has stagnated from FY26 and is likely to stay flat in FY27 — with the Middle East situation and a potential 8th Pay Commission pushing the deficit above budget. The rupee is near an all-time low, with the RBI over $100 billion short in the forward market and Chinese imports keeping the goods trade deficit high. A shift in retail credit worth watching: consumption loans not taken for a vehicle or a home are now roughly half of all outstanding retail credit, up from 34% in March 2017. That is a leverage build in the household balance sheet, not a growth story. Global — AI credit stress and the “anti-AI destination” case US hyperscalers have turned free cash flow negative. Their borrowing is going from under $20 billion in 2023–24 to about $200 billion in 2026. Credit spreads have widened across the group. And roughly $1.65 trillion of AI-related debt sits off balance sheet as committed leases. Kotak’s read: if the AI trade reverses, money looks for an anti-AI destination — and India sits at the top of that list. That is the case for hoping this time brings a decoupling between US and Indian markets. Cap-size positioning — Mid OW, Large EW, Small UW Mid-cap overweight, large-cap equal weight, small-cap marginally underweight. Earnings have delivered across all buckets, but the valuation math tilts positioning toward mid-caps. Small caps are already about 20% above historical average valuations and are up 15% from pre-crisis levels while large caps are still 4% below February. The value has moved unevenly — Kotak wants exposure to the segment where earnings and valuation align, and steps back from the segment that has already run. Sector calls — Financials anchor, discretionary consumption, IT neutral, infra over oil Financials remain the anchor. Credit growth healthy, retail participation returning, margins holding despite cost pressure, credit costs better than expected. Prefer private banks over PSUs, and mid-size private banks